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Uncertainty in Our Economy

The market’s big gains last week were made on better-than-expected second quarter earnings. While definitely good news, by itself these reports do not mean that we are out of the woods entirely. The reality is that most of the upside was coming from China. Many companies achieved estimate-beating results by cost cutting. Some industry bellwethers did not report any encouraging news, such as mighty GE, whose revenues and profits declined 17 and 47 percent respectively. Moreover, out of its four main businesses, the only one that posted an increase in earnings was the Energy Infrastructure segment, where sales were essentially flat.

Altogether, energy and commodities were big winners of the past weeks. Their advances have been read by the market as anticipatory of recovery; we think that it’s the recovery in emerging markets that these economically sensitive sectors are reacting to. China in particular was a big grower, as economic measures of its government are taking hold. Loans there tripled this year, compared to a year ago period, and its stock market is moving strongly up as well.

In the U.S., uncertainties are not ending with the earnings reporting season. The story of commercial lender CIT has also been closely watched after the number one small business lender was unable to get a second bailout from the government. The news of CIT obtaining $3 billion in financing from bondholders helped calm market jitters one day, but this lender said yesterday day that it still may need to file for bankruptcy if it can’t repurchase notes maturing next month.

Many financial companies are still reporting losses. This is especially true for small banks: Regions Financial, Comerica, Zions Bancorp all reported losses yesterday on bad loans; Morgan Stanley lost more than was expected by analysts and Wells Fargo’s bad loans also jumped 45 percent in the past quarter.

As the reporting season goes on, we will likely see more surprises on both the positive and negative side. It’s the reason behind the positive surprises and the disappointments that will tell the market’s story going forward.

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Earnings Season is Upon Us

We are in the full swing of earnings season, and the market is sorting through companies’ reports to find clues as to the state of the economy. Our read has largely been that only those companies that have significant operations in the developing nations are showing strength, while many domestic companies are still having trouble. In other words, we think that the American economy is not out of the woods yet. Today we’ll review two companies that reported earnings yesterday: Coca-Cola (KO), a multinational powerhouse, and Apple (AAPL), a predominantly domestic company that has bucked the trend of weak consumer spending.
 
The world’s largest soft-drink maker, Coca-Cola, reported earnings per share of 92 cents for the quarter (excluding some items), outpacing analyst expectations of 89 cents, but down from comparable numbers in the year-earlier period. Revenue shrunk 8.6 percent to $8.27 billion from 9.05 billion in 2008, as foreign exchange fluctuations cut into dollar-denominated sales – the company collects over 70 percent of its revenues from outside the country. The volume of drinks sold worldwide rose 4 percent – not surprisingly led by huge gains in China and India with 14 and 33 percent increases, respectively. These developing world nations more than made up for the 1 percent volume drop the company saw in the U.S. market. Chairman & CEO Muhtar Kent was pleased with the developing market sales, but plans to cut out more than $250 million in annual expenses, and possibly twice that by 2011 to free cash for additional marketing campaigns in that part of the world.

While Coca-Cola relied on foreign operations to buoy its business, consumer electronics powerhouse Apple was able to grow earnings despite meager exposure to the developing world. The company reported fiscal third-quarter profits last night that greatly exceeded expectations and represented the company’s best non-holiday quarter ever. Relying on sales of its iPhone (which the company has struggled to maintain enough supply to meet demand) and less-expensive Mac notebook computers, the company’s quarterly profit rose to $1.23 billion from $1.07 billion in the year earlier period. Sales, which rose 12 percent to $8.34 billion, combined with better than expected gross margins of 36 percent to provide earnings of $1.35 per share compared to expectations of $1.17. 
 
Despite the blowout numbers, the company did cite some relative weakness (or lack of growth) in education and business markets which have been subject to budget constraints. However, given the added speed and features of its new iPhone model, COO Tim Cook noted that the phone is showing positive signs in corporate, government, and educational sectors. 
 
As per usual, the company’s forecasts were short of analysts’ estimates. The company sees sales of $8.7 billion to $8.9 billion in the coming quarter, while earnings per share will be $1.28-$1.23. Profit margins will likely come in some as the company touts back-to-school promotions, and feels the effects of recent price cuts to its Mac computer line. Regardless, both pricing measures will help Apple continue to increase its market share – which now sits at 8.7 percent of the U.S. computer market. The company has an astounding $31.1 billion of cash on its balance sheet with no debt – an enviable position in the current climate. Shares have rallied over 75 percent this year, but still only trade at a PEG of only 1.5. The company has demonstrated a remarkable ability to grow a consumer-dependent business in one of the harshest consumer environments of the last 80 years.

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